Las Elecciones Presidenciales de Estados Unidos en 2016: ¿elecciones críticas o continuidad? / The United States Presidential Elections in 2016: critical elections or continuity?

Contenido principal del artículo

Guadalupe Pacheco Méndez

Resumen

Las elecciones presidenciales en Estados Unidos en 2016, aunque tuvieron un formato muy polarizado, que parecía anunciar un gran cambio en las bases sociales que componen el apoyo a los dos principales partidos, en realidad fueron una prolongación de las características ya existentes en el sistema de partidos y en el comportamiento electoral. El marco institucional que encuadra las elecciones hizo posible la sobre-representación del republicano Donald Trump en el Colegio Electoral. Su victoria no alteró la tradicional base republicana sino que fue una continuación de la misma; la única novedad fue que ganó en seis estados adicionales, en los que al menos desde 2008 ganaban los candidatos presidenciales demócratas. Esos estados le aseguraron la victoria en la elección presidencial, gracias a una mayor reactivación del electorado de raza blanca en su favor. A pesar de la polarización entre las élites políticas, se mantuvo el mismo alineamiento social en torno a los partidos, por lo que no fueron elecciones críticas, ni de realineamiento. Sin embargo, es posible que tengan profundas consecuencias políticas.

 

The presidential elections in the United States in 2016, although the campaigns showed very polarized format that seemed to announce a great change in the social bases that make up the support of the two main parties, actually they were were an extension of the characteristics already existing in the party system and in the electoral behavior. The institutional framework of the elections made possible the over-representation of the Republican Donald Trump in the Electoral College, as compared to his popular vote. His victory did not alter the traditional republican base but was a continuation of it; the only novelty was that he won in six additional states, in which at least since 2008 the Democratic presidential candidates had won. Those states assured him the victory in the presidential election, thanks to a greater reactivation of the white electorate in his favor. Despite the polarization among the political elites, the same social alignment remained around the parties, so they were not critical elections, nor a realignment. Nevertheless, they may have deep political consequences.

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1.
Pacheco Méndez G. Las Elecciones Presidenciales de Estados Unidos en 2016: ¿elecciones críticas o continuidad? / The United States Presidential Elections in 2016: critical elections or continuity?. RMEE [Internet]. 26 de julio de 2019 [citado 6 de febrero de 2025];3(22). Disponible en: https://rmee.org.mx/index.php/RMEstudiosElectorales/article/view/285
Biografía del autor/a

Guadalupe Pacheco Méndez, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Xochimilco

Docente titular C en la Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Xochimilco. Miembro del Sistema Nacional de Investigadores (II). Sus líneas de investigación son: Geografía Electoral en México; Elecciones y Sistema de Partidos en México; Modelo Organizativo del PRI y Conflicto Interno; Reestructuración de Europa en la Post-Guerra Fría,; la OTAN y los problemas de seguridad en Europa; y cambios de Balance de Poder en el Orden Internacional, 2000-2016.

Correo electrónico: [email protected]

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